Highlights

• • Our model: Rahmani ~58% chance to win based on comparative career records
• • Current home odds 1.549 produce negative EV (~-0.102 per unit) vs our estimate

Pros

• + Rahmani has the stronger historical win rate in the provided data
• + Both players have experience on similar surfaces, limiting a strong surface-based upset argument

Cons

• - Bookmaker prices imply a higher probability than we estimate, removing value
• - Research contains limited recent-match detail and no injury or H2H info, increasing uncertainty

Details

We estimate Kasra Rahmani is the stronger player based on the provided career win rates (Rahmani 12-12, Rapagnetta 10-18) and translate that into a comparative probability, but the market price for Rahmani (1.549, implied ~64.5%) appears too short versus our model. We derived an estimated true probability for Rahmani of 0.58 by converting the players' career win rates into a relative winning chance (50% vs 35.7% -> 50/(50+35.7) ≈ 0.58) and then adjusted conservatively for small sample sizes and limited recent-form clarity. At that probability the break-even decimal odds are ~1.724; the current home price of 1.549 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.549 - 1 ≈ -0.102 per unit), so there is no value in backing Rahmani at the available price. The away price (2.39, implied ~41.8%) would require Rapagnetta to have a true win probability >41.8%, which contradicts his weaker career win rate and the comparative model, so we do not find value on the away side either. Given sparse recent-match detail, unknown surface specifics for this Bologna fixture, and no injury information, we favor a conservative stance and recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Rahmani's career win rate (12-12) vs Rapagnetta's weaker 10-18 record
• • Market-implied probability for Rahmani (1/1.549 ≈ 64.5%) is higher than our estimated 58%
• • Small sample sizes, unclear recent-form details and no explicit injury/surface edge in the provided data