Highlights

• • Rahmani: 12-12 career record; Tabacco: 8-15 — Rahmani is the stronger record-holder
• • Current market (1.60) requires a >60% true win chance to be profitable; our estimate sits at ~60%

Pros

• + Rahmani has the better documented win-loss record
• + Both players are familiar with likely surfaces, reducing surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Recent match details are sparse and contain inconsistent stat entries, increasing uncertainty
• - Tabacco has recent participation at higher-level events (M25), which may narrow the quality gap

Details

We compare the market price (Kasra Rahmani 1.60, implied ~62.5%) to our assessment of true win likelihood. Rahmani has a better overall record (12-12) than Tabacco (8-15) and both have experience on clay and hard, but recent published match data for both is limited and contains inconsistent stat entries. Tabacco appears to have played at a slightly higher event level in some recent results (M25) despite an inferior win rate. Balancing Rahmani's marginally stronger win percentage and lack of clear form advantage or head-to-head data, we estimate Rahmani's true win probability at 60.0%. At the current decimal 1.60 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60*1.60 - 1 = -0.04), so no value exists versus the market. To justify a bet on Rahmani we would need at least decimal 1.667 or higher.

Key factors

• • Kasra Rahmani has a superior career win-loss record (12-12) versus Giorgio Tabacco (8-15)
• • Both players have clay and hard experience; no clear surface edge identified from available data
• • Market implies ~62.5% for Rahmani; our estimated true probability is ~60%, producing negative EV