Highlights

• • We estimate Komatsu's win probability at 78% vs. market-implied ~80.7%
• • EV on the favorite is slightly negative (-0.033) at the supplied odds

Pros

• + Conservative, low-bias approach minimizes chance of overbetting on thin edges
• + Clear decision: neither side offers positive expected value under conservative assumptions

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If inside information or recent form data exists, our conservative estimate may be too cautious

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 3.75, Away 1.24) to a conservative estimated win probability for the favorite (Rina Komatsu). Given the lack of external data, we assume Komatsu is materially stronger but conservatively estimate her true win chance at 78%. That estimate implies a fair decimal price of 1.282, while the market is offering 1.24 — the market price is shorter than our conservative fair price, so the favorite is overpriced relative to our estimate. The underdog (Kasumi Hirayama) is implied at ~26.7% by the market (3.75) but our conservative view gives her about a 22% chance; that does not present value either. Because neither side shows positive expected value at the supplied prices (the favorite yields a small negative EV under our model and the underdog is clearly negative), we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.24) indicating perceived clear superiority
• • No independent data available; we apply conservative assumptions to avoid overestimating edges
• • Small gap between our conservative probability and market-implied probability leaves no positive EV