Katarina Jokic vs Katharina Hobgarski
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest positive value on Katarina Jokic at 2.17 based on a conservative 48% win probability versus the market-implied ~46% for the home side; the edge is small but favorable.
Highlights
- • Players have nearly identical records and recent results in the research
- • Current away favoritism at 1.629 looks overstated relative to available data
Pros
- + Clearer value by backing the underpriced home at 2.17
- + Conservative probability estimate still yields a positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is small (~4.2% ROI) and sensitive to the probability estimate
- - Limited and similar data for both players increases outcome variance
Details
We estimate the two players are essentially evenly matched based on identical career records and similar recent results in the research, so the market’s heavy lean to the away player at 1.629 looks overstated. Using a conservative true probability of 48% for Katarina Jokic (home) versus 52% for Katharina Hobgarski (away), the current home decimal price of 2.17 offers positive expected value: EV = 0.48 * 2.17 - 1 = +0.042 (4.2% ROI). The implied probability from the market (home 46.1%, away 61.4% with overround) appears to over-favor the away player relative to our assessment, creating the value opportunity on the home side. We used the provided current moneyline 2.17 for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
- • Market prices imply a substantially stronger chance for the away player that is not supported by the available performance data
- • Limited data and similar surface experience increase variance, so the edge is modest but present