Highlights

• • Katarina Kujovic is an experienced player with a long career record
• • Current market price requires >90.9% true win probability to be fair; our estimate is ~88%

Pros

• + Experience and overall positive career win‑loss record
• + Market consensus strongly favors the home player

Cons

• - Recent match results in the research show losses and limited confidence in form
• - No opponent data provided to detect potential mismatch or value

Details

We compared the market price (Katarina Kujovic 1.10) to our conservative win probability estimate. Kujovic is a long‑time pro with an overall winning record, but the limited recent form data in the research shows losses in recent events and there is no opponent data to confidently downgrade uncertainty. At a true win probability we estimate of 88%, the implied fair price would be ~1.136; the available 1.10 is shorter than that and thus offers negative expected value. Given the market skew toward a very short favorite and the information gap on Patricia Goina, we do not find profitable value at the posted odds.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors home at 1.10 (implied 90.9%)
• • Home player has long career and slightly positive overall record but recent results in research show losses
• • No usable data on the opponent in provided research, increasing estimation uncertainty