Highlights

• • Home implied probability 26.6% vs our estimate 40%
• • Positive EV of +0.504 units at current 3.76 price

Pros

• + Large pricing discrepancy vs our modelled probability
• + Away’s recent match timing suggests potential fatigue advantage for home

Cons

• - Both players have poor overall records; variance is high
• - Limited data (no H2H or injury details) increases uncertainty in the estimate

Details

We find value on Katarina Kujovic (home). The market price (home 3.76, away 1.243) implies a 26.6% chance for the home player, which is too low given the information. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and mixed results on clay/hard, but Suana Tucakovic played a match on 08-Sep (possible fatigue) while Katarina's most recent listed matches were earlier, so we view the matchup as much closer than the market implies. We estimate Katarina's true win probability at ~40%, which produces positive expected value against the current 3.76 price (EV = 0.40*3.76 - 1 = +0.504). Given limited differentiation in form, surface history, and no H2H or injury data, the market is likely overstating the favorite; we therefore recommend taking the home moneyline where offered at or near 3.76.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and surface experience (10-21)
• • Suana played the day before (08-Sep) which may increase fatigue risk
• • Market heavily favors away (implied ~80%) despite limited evidence for such a large gap