Highlights

• • Kubareva's extensive experience and >50% career win rate contrast with Kuzmova's 32% sample.
• • Current away odds 2.04 produce ~22% ROI at our probability estimate.

Pros

• + Significant value gap between our estimated probability and market price (2.04).
• + Kubareva's large match sample reduces long-term uncertainty relative to Kuzmova's small sample.

Cons

• - Recent-match form details in the research are limited and contain noisy entries, adding short-term uncertainty.
• - Tournament-level volatility (ITF event) can produce upsets; single-match variance remains high.

Details

We see a clear discrepancy between market pricing and underlying career performance in the provided research. Katarina Kuzmova has a short sample (31 matches) and a weak win rate (10-21, ~32%), while Anna Kubareva is a veteran with a large sample (1066 matches) and a positive long-term win rate (559-507, ~52%). The market lists Kuzmova as the favorite at 1.714 (implied ~58%), which appears to overvalue the younger player given the experience and win-rate edge for Kubareva. Given surface neutrality in the data and no explicit injury flags, we project Kubareva's true win probability materially higher than the implied 49% from the current away price (2.04). Using a conservative estimate of Kubareva's chance at 60%, the current away price of 2.04 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.6*2.04 - 1 = 0.224). We therefore recommend backing the away player (Anna Kubareva) as a value bet, while noting tournament variance and limited recent-match clarity increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Large experience and superior long-term win rate for Kubareva (559-507 vs Kuzmova 10-21)
• • Market favors Kuzmova (1.714) despite weaker career record in provided data — implies possible mispricing
• • No explicit injury or surface disadvantage for Kubareva in the provided research; surface appears neutral between both