Highlights

• • Kuzmova’s recent form (10-21) suggests vulnerability not reflected in 1.05 odds
• • At 8.0, Abouelsaad needs only a >12.5% true win chance to be profitable; we estimate ~18%

Pros

• + Large margin between implied market probability and our estimated true probability
• + High decimal price (8.0) creates substantial theoretical ROI if our probability is correct

Cons

• - No direct data on Abouelsaad (ranking, recent form, H2H), increasing model uncertainty
• - Heavy market skew could reflect contextual information not provided here (e.g., withdrawal risk, unknown surface advantage)

Details

We find value on Hania Abouelsaad at the available price because the market is pricing Katarina Kuzmova as an overwhelming favorite (implied ~95% at 1.05) despite Kuzmova's poor recent results. Kuzmova's recorded 10-21 mark across 31 matches over the cited season and a string of recent losses indicate form weakness; with no concrete injury or matchup data provided for Abouelsaad, the market appears to be overestimating Kuzmova's win probability. Conservatively estimating Abouelsaad's true chance to win at 18% (0.18) yields a required fair decimal price of 5.556; the current 8.0 quote therefore offers positive expected value. We remain cautious because Abouelsaad's profile and H2H are not provided, increasing uncertainty, but the disparity between implied market probability and Kuzmova's form justifies taking the underdog at current prices.

Key factors

• • Katarina Kuzmova's recent overall record is weak (10-21 across 31 matches)
• • Market odds (1.05/8.0) imply an outsized probability for Kuzmova despite recent losses
• • No injury/H2H info for Abouelsaad increases uncertainty but market skew likely overprices the favorite