Highlights

• • Current market implies only a 12.5% chance for Fouad, which conflicts with her career edge in the supplied data
• • At our 70% estimate, the offered 8.0 yields very large positive EV (ROI ≈ 460%)

Pros

• + Huge price discrepancy offers substantial edge if our probability view is correct
• + Fouad's long-term durability and higher career win rate favor her in a matchup with a struggling opponent

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and contains anomalies; model uncertainty is material
• - Extreme market price sometimes reflects non-public factors (injury, withdrawal risk, match conditions) that are not in the supplied data

Details

We observe a glaring market disconnect: the book market heavily favours Katarina Kuzmova at 1.05 (implied 95.24%) while Nada Fouad is priced at 8.0 (implied 12.5%). The supplied profiles show Kuzmova with a weak recent record (10-21) and clear form concerns, whereas Fouad has a long, positive career record (559-507) and far greater experience across surfaces. Given Kuzmova's poor win rate and recent losses compared to Fouad's durability and higher career win percentage, the available price on Fouad appears deeply mispriced. Using a conservative estimate that Fouad's true win probability is 70.0%, the required fair decimal price would be ~1.429, far below the offered 8.0 — producing large positive expected value. We therefore recommend the away side because the market price (8.0) implies a much lower chance than our assessment supports. Odds comparison: market-implied P(home)=0.952, P(away)=0.125; our P(away)=0.700. This gap produces substantial value on the away moneyline even after accounting for uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Kuzmova's poor recent win-loss (10-21) and visible form issues in recent matches
• • Fouad's extensive career experience and overall positive win record (559-507)
• • Massive mismatch between market-implied probabilities (away 12.5%) and our assessed probability (70%)