Highlights

• • Kuzmova implied probability at 1.461 ≈ 68.4%
• • Our estimated true probability 56% yields EV ≈ -0.182 (no value)

Pros

• + Clear, conservative probability estimate based on provided data
• + Avoids backing an overpriced favorite with no supporting edge

Cons

• - Limited and duplicated data in the research reduces confidence in the probability estimate
• - No H2H, injury, or detailed surface-form data to refine the model

Details

We see the market pricing Katarina Kuzmova at 1.461 (implied ~68.4%) while our assessment gives her only a modest edge. Both players show nearly identical profiles, records (10-21) and surface experience (clay/hard) in the supplied data and there is no clear form or injury advantage. Given that, we estimate Kuzmova's true win probability at ~56%; at the current price (1.461) that produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.56 * 1.461 - 1 ≈ -0.182). The market is overpricing the favorite relative to our model, so we do not recommend taking Kuzmova at 1.461.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Kuzmova (68.4%) is materially higher than our estimated true win probability (56%).
• • Provided records and recent results for both players are nearly identical, offering no clear edge to justify the short price.
• • No injury, H2H or surface advantage information in the research that would materially increase Kuzmova's true win probability above our estimate.