Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Zavatska is ~28.6%; our estimate is ~38%
• • Required fair odds (2.632) are well below available price (3.5), creating positive EV

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between market-implied probability and our estimated true probability
• + Both players' provided form and records do not justify the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Research is limited (no H2H, rankings, or injury details) so unseen information could justify market prices
• - Underdog bets can be higher variance despite positive EV

Details

Market prices make Bulgaru a heavy favorite at 1.27 (implied ~78.7%) while Zavatska is offered at 3.5 (implied ~28.6%). The provided profiles show near-identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on hard and clay with no injury information or clear surface advantage. We estimate the true win probability for Zavatska is materially higher than the market-implied 28.6% — around 38% — because the players' recent forms and records are effectively even, so the market’s steep skew toward Bulgaru appears to reflect overpricing rather than clear on-court superiority. At decimal 3.5 this creates positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.5 - 1 = 0.33). We therefore recommend taking the home underdog only because current odds offer a sizeable margin above our required fair odds; note uncertainty from limited data and potential market information not present in the research.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent results in the provided data (10-21), implying comparable levels
• • Market heavily favors Bulgaru (1.27) producing a low implied probability for Zavatska that we judge too low
• • No injury or surface advantage information in the research to justify the large market gap