Highlights

• • Market price (3.34) implies 29.9% — our conservative estimate is 31%
• • Edge is small (~+0.035 EV) and sensitive to limited data and form

Pros

• + Price offers slight value versus our conservative probability estimate
• + No injuries reported in provided data to reduce probability further

Cons

• - Limited data on the opponent and match conditions increases uncertainty
• - Zavatska's recent run of losses undermines confidence in projected win rate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Katarina Zavatska (1/3.34 = 29.9%) to our estimate of her true win probability. The only player-specific data provided is Zavatska's 10-21 career record (31 matches total, ~32% win rate) and recent losses, which we discount slightly for form and uncertainty about surface/opponent. There are no injury notes in the supplied research and no H2H or opponent stats to materially adjust the view. Conservatively we estimate Zavatska's true win probability at 31.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 29.9% and yields a small positive edge. Using the current decimal price of 3.34, expected value = 0.31 * 3.34 - 1 = +0.035 (3.5% ROI). Given limited data and variance in tennis, this is a small-value, higher-uncertainty play rather than a strong conviction.

Key factors

• • Zavatska career win rate around 32% (10-21 across 31 matches)
• • Recent form shows multiple losses, so we slightly discount career rate
• • Market-implied probability (29.9%) is slightly below our conservative 31% estimate
• • No injury information provided and no H2H/opponent data in the research