Highlights

• • Market implies ~90% for Zavatska; our estimate ~75%
• • Fair minimum odds for value on Zavatska are ~1.333 — current 1.11 is too short

Pros

• + If Zavatska is indeed stronger than the limited data shows, she remains the likely match winner
• + Short pricing indicates market certainty, reducing variance if one prefers to avoid risky underdogs

Cons

• - Current favorite odds (1.11) offer negative expected value against our probability estimate
• - Research shows no clear form or surface advantage to justify the market gap

Details

We compare the market price (K. Zavatska 1.11 => implied 90.1%) to our assessment based on the research: both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and similar recent form across clay and hard courts, with no injury or H2H information that would justify such a heavy market bias. Given the parity in profiles and lack of strong edges, we estimate Zavatska's true win probability materially below the market-implied 90%. Using a conservative estimated probability of 75%, the required fair odds would be ~1.333. At the current price of 1.11 there is no value (negative EV), so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21), limiting a clear performance edge
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (90.1%) is far higher than a reasoned estimate based on available data
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage data in the research to justify heavy favoritism