Highlights

• • Research shows near-identical records and surface history for both players
• • Current home price (4.10) implies substantial mispricing if players are close in level

Pros

• + Large pricing disconnect between our probability and the market creates significant theoretical EV
• + No research-backed factor (injury, surface, form) favors the market favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and largely identical for both players, increasing model uncertainty
• - Market may reflect unreported information or recent form not present in the provided sources

Details

We note the market strongly favors Iva Jovic (implied ~81% at 1.23) while the quoted profile data in the research shows virtually identical recent records and surface history for both players (each 10-21 across clay and hard). With no distinguishing injuries, H2H or surface advantage in the provided research, we treat the matchup as much closer than the market price implies. Comparing our estimated true probability for Katarzyna Kawa (45%) to the market-implied probability for the home moneyline (1/4.1 = 24.4%) shows a large mispricing. At decimal 4.10 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 4.10 - 1 = 0.845). We acknowledge substantial uncertainty due to limited differentiating data in the sources, so our probability reflects partial regression toward market information but favors the view that the market is overstating Jovic's advantage.

Key factors

• • Both player profiles in the research show virtually identical recent records (10-21) and surfaces played
• • Market is heavily skewed to the away player (Iva Jovic at 1.23) creating a large implied-probability gap
• • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the provided research to justify the market gap