Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 89.5% (1.117)
• • Our conservative probability estimate: 88.0% → fair odds ~1.136

Pros

• + Kawa is the clear favorite, minimizing upset risk
• + If price drifts to ≥1.136, the bet becomes at least fair-value

Cons

• - Current price (1.117) offers a small negative edge versus our model
• - No external data on surface/form/injuries to justify deviating from conservative estimate

Details

The market prices Katarzyna Kawa extremely short at 1.117 (implied 89.5%). With no external research available we apply conservative assumptions: Kawa is the clear favorite but we estimate her true win probability around 88.0% (0.88) rather than the market-implied 89.5%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.136; the offered 1.117 is shorter than fair, producing a small negative edge. Given limited information on surface, form, injuries or H2H, we decline to recommend backing either side unless a price at or above 1.136 for Kawa appears. If the market drifts to >=1.136 it would meet our minimum required odds for a break-even expectation, and anything higher would present positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors the home player (implied 89.5%)
• • Conservative estimated true win probability (88%) is lower than market-implied
• • No additional research (form, surface, injuries, H2H) was available to justify price divergence