Highlights

• • Market implies ~68.4% for home vs our 60% estimate
• • Negative EV of roughly -12.2% at current home price

Pros

• + Home pair is priced as a clear favorite — easy to understand market stance
• + Hard court surface is neutral to both pairs per available data

Cons

• - Current price (1.463) is below our min required price (1.667) for positive EV
• - Research lacks specific, recent form or H2H detail to justify a higher true probability

Details

We find no positive expected value on either side at the quoted market prices. The market-implied probability for the home pair (1.463) is ~68.4%, but the publicly available research provides only generic career summaries and recent mixed results for all four players with no clear form, H2H or injury advantage for the home team. On hard courts the matchup appears fairly even from the data we have, so we estimate a true win probability for the home pair of 60%. At that estimate the required fair decimal price is ≈1.667, well above the offered 1.463, producing a negative EV. Therefore we do not recommend taking the home favourite at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.463) > our conservative true estimate (60%)
• • Research provides no clear form or injury advantage for either pair on hard court
• • Absence of H2H and differentiating performance data increases uncertainty; market likely pricing reputation