Katerina Siniakova vs Astra Sharma
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given Siniakova's poor recent form and season win rate, the away price of 4.50 offers clear value; we estimate Astra's win probability at ~68%, making the away moneyline +EV.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies ~82.7% for Siniakova, which conflicts with a 32% documented win rate
- • At our 68% estimate, the away price 4.50 produces a large positive ROI
Pros
- + Strong numerical value gap between market odds and documented form
- + Recent hard-court losses by Siniakova support downgrade of her true win probability
Cons
- - No direct performance data for Astra Sharma supplied in the research, increasing uncertainty
- - Single-player win-loss aggregates can mask matchup-specific factors (style, fitness, recent recovery) not present in the dataset
Details
The market strongly favours Katerina Siniakova at 1.209 (implied ~82.7%), but the supplied performance data show Siniakova has a 10-21 record over the referenced span (≈32% win rate) with recent losses on hard courts. We see a clear disconnect between the bookmaker price and the documented form. Conservatively estimating Astra Sharma's true match win probability at 68% (based on Siniakova's poor win rate and recent results) yields substantial value on the away moneyline of 4.50. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.471, so the available 4.50 quote presents a large positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Siniakova's documented season record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate), indicating significant struggles
- • Recent results listed show back-to-back losses on hard courts just prior to this match
- • Market pricing (home 1.209) appears disconnected from the supplied performance data, creating value on the underdog