Katerina Siniakova vs Sohyun Park

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implied chance for Park: ~11.8%; our estimate: 15%
• • Positive EV of +0.275 per unit at current decimal odds 8.5

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value vs current market price
• + Based on parity of records and surface history, the market looks overstated on the favorite

Cons

• - Limited data and similar poor win-loss records increase uncertainty
• - Longshot bets carry high variance and can fail despite positive EV

Details

We find value on the away player (Sohyun Park). The market prices Katerina Siniakova at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%) and Park at 8.50 (implied ~11.8%). The public price implies an extreme mismatch, but the available form data shows both players with nearly identical recent records (10-21) and experience on the same surfaces (hard and clay). There are no clear injury reports or form indicators in the research that justify a ~90% win probability for Siniakova. Given parity in recent results and surface exposure, we estimate Park's true chance materially higher than the market-implied 11.8% — we estimate about 15% (0.15). At decimal 8.5 this implies positive expected value (EV = 0.15*8.5 - 1 = +0.275). The bet is a value play on the longshot; downside is high variance, but the market price looks overstretched in favor of the heavy favorite.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extreme favoritism (home implied ~93.5%) that isn't supported by near-identical 10-21 records
• • Both players have recent matches on hard courts and similar form, suggesting closer contest probability
• • No injury or withdrawal data present to justify the market skew toward the heavy favorite