Highlights

• • Market heavily favors home (1.426) without clear justification in the provided data
• • At our 48% estimate, the away price of 2.75 yields meaningful positive EV

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current available odds
• + Simple rationale: symmetric player profiles imply a much closer match than market prices

Cons

• - Very limited data and no head-to-head/surface/injury details increases uncertainty
• - If there are unreported factors favoring the home player, our probability estimate would be too generous to the away

Details

We see both players with nearly identical season records (10-21) and no clear differentiators in the supplied profiles (surface preference, injuries, or H2H). The market makes Katerina Tsygourova a strong favorite at 1.426 (implied ~70.1%) while Alexandra Vagramov is priced at 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). Given the symmetry in the available data and lack of additional edge for the home player, we estimate this is a much closer matchup and assign Vagramov a true win probability of 48%. At that probability the away price of 2.75 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.48*2.75 - 1 = +0.32), meaning the market appears to be overvaluing the home player. We note substantial uncertainty due to limited information and small sample sizes, but on pure value terms the away line looks attractive versus our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical season records (10-21) in the supplied data
• • Market implies a large favorite (home 70.1%) despite no clear supporting data
• • Limited and symmetric data increases uncertainty but also indicates market overpricing of the favorite