Highlights

• • Away implied probability 77.9% vs Marianne's career win rate ~32%
• • Home price 3.36 implies only ~29.8% — appears mispriced against available data

Pros

• + Strong value gap between implied market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + Decision grounded on explicit career W-L data rather than noisy recent-match snippets

Cons

• - Very limited data on Kateryna Diatlova in the provided research — our estimate relies on treating Marianne's poor record as primary signal
• - Tournament/contextual factors (surface, injuries, head-to-head) are not provided and could overturn the assumed edge

Details

We compare the market's heavy preference for Marianne Argyrokastriti (away, 1.283 decimal = 77.9% implied) with the only concrete performance data available: Marianne's career W-L of 10-21 (31 matches, ~32% win rate). That career win rate makes a 78% probability unrealistic on the provided evidence. In the absence of countervailing data about Kateryna Diatlova, the most defensible adjustment is to take Marianne's observed career win rate as the baseline and allocate the remainder of probability to Diatlova. Using a conservative estimate that Marianne's true win probability is ~0.33 (based on 10/31) and therefore Kateryna Diatlova's true probability is ~0.67, the home moneyline of 3.36 (implied 29.8%) is a large market mispricing in favor of the underdog. At our estimated true probability (0.67) the fair decimal price for Diatlova is ~1.493, while the current price 3.36 is far higher, producing a strongly positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the home player (Diatlova) because the market is overestimating Marianne relative to the limited performance data provided.

Key factors

• • Marianne Argyrokastriti career record 10-21 (~32% win rate)
• • Market implies Marianne has ~77.9% chance (decimal 1.283), which conflicts with her career win rate
• • No provided performance/data for Kateryna Diatlova, creating potential market inefficiency favoring the short-priced favourite