Highlights

• • Market strongly favors Helmi at 1.211 (implied ~82.6%)
• • Our conservative true probability estimate (70%) implies negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Helmi has extensive career experience and an overall winning record
• + The heavy market favorite status reflects perceived class advantage

Cons

• - Recent form in the supplied research shows losses and does not clearly support an >82% win probability
• - No information on the opponent or head-to-head to justify the market’s short price

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Olga Helmi (1.211 → ~82.6%) to our conservative estimated win probability of 70%. Helmi is clearly the favorite given her long career and positive overall record, but the available research shows recent losses and provides no information on Kateryna Diatlova’s level or head-to-head, so we downgrade the favourite’s true win probability relative to the market. At our estimated true probability (70%), the required fair odds are ~1.429; the current market price of 1.211 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.7 * 1.211 - 1 = -0.1523), so we do not recommend backing either player at the quoted prices. If Helmi’s true chance were meaningfully above ~82.6% (i.e., there was clear supporting data), a bet could be warranted, but that evidence is not present in the provided research.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker implies ~82.6% for Helmi (1.211); we view this as optimistic given the available data
• • Helmi has large career volume and a slightly positive record, but recent results in the research show losses and possible form/noise
• • No data on Kateryna Diatlova or head-to-head makes it unsafe to assume the market margin is accurate