Highlights

• • Market implies ~66.6% for Lazarenko; we estimate ~70%
• • Small, positive expected value at current odds (≈+5.2% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-count edge
• + Versatility across surfaces reduces matchup risk

Cons

• - Edge is modest — not a large margin above market
• - Recent form appears mixed for both players, increasing short-term variance

Details

We view Kateryna Lazarenko as the value side. The market gives Lazarenko decimal 1.503 (implied ~66.6%), but her long career (559-507 across multiple surfaces) and clear experience advantage over Alana Subasic (10-21 in 31 matches, much shorter career) justify a higher win probability. Subasic has a limited sample size and mixed recent results; Lazarenko's surface versatility and match experience increase her probability here. We estimate Lazarenko's true win probability at 70%, which exceeds the implied market probability, producing positive expected value at the current price (EV = 0.7 * 1.503 - 1 ≈ +0.052). The market margin is modest, so this is a small, but real, value opportunity rather than a large edge.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Lazarenko (1066 matches vs 31)
• • Subasic's short pro record (10-21) and limited top-level exposure increases variance
• • Both players have recent mixed results, but Lazarenko's multi-surface history reduces matchup risk