Highlights

• • Implied market probability (78.4%) exceeds our best estimate (70%).
• • Research lacks decisive surface/H2H/injury information, increasing uncertainty.

Pros

• + Korneeva is the clear market favorite, indicating perceived quality advantage.
• + Available profiles confirm both players are experienced competitors.

Cons

• - Current price (1.276) offers no margin for error versus our win-probability estimate.
• - Research is incomplete/duplicated and omits key context (surface, H2H, injuries).

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Away Alina Korneeva 1.276 -> implied ~78.4%) to our estimate of Korneeva's true win probability. The supplied player summaries contain limited and partially duplicated recent-match data showing recent losses for both players and do not include surface, H2H, or injury detail; this increases uncertainty. Given the available information we estimate Korneeva's true win probability at about 70%, well below the market-implied 78.4%, which yields a negative expected value at the current price. Therefore we do not recommend taking the favorite at 1.276.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Korneeva is ~78.4% (1.276) which is high
• • Provided research shows limited, ambiguous recent-form data and mirrored entries for both players
• • No reliable surface, H2H, or injury information in the supplied sources, raising uncertainty