Katherine Sebov vs Julie Belgraver
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Katherine Sebov at 1.667 because her true win probability (~66%) exceeds the market-implied 60%, producing an estimated ~10% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability: 60.0%; our estimate: 66%
- • Minimum fair odds needed: 1.515, current price 1.667 offers positive edge
Pros
- + Experienced veteran advantage over a relatively new pro
- + Current odds provide a clear positive EV by our estimate
Cons
- - Recent form entries are mixed and not fully detailed in the provided research
- - Lower-tier events can have higher variance and upsets despite experience gaps
Details
We estimate Katherine Sebov is undervalued by the market. The book price of 1.667 implies a win probability of 60.0%, but accounting for Sebov's long career experience, higher overall win rate versus a much less experienced Julie Belgraver (10-21 in 31 matches), and likely favorable matchup on clay/hard ITF conditions, we estimate Sebov's true win probability at ~66%. That produces a minimum fair decimal price of ~1.515, well below the offered 1.667, giving positive expected value after removing bookmaker margin. Risks include limited recent form clarity and variance inherent in lower-tier events, but the experience and sample-size gap support a value play on the home player at current odds.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Sebov has a long pro career vs Belgraver's 31 matches
- • Career win-rate edge: Sebov's broader match record indicates higher baseline level
- • Market price (1.667) implies 60% — our model prices Sebov at ~66%, creating positive EV