Kathinka Von Deichmann / Celine Naef vs Andrea Gamiz / Eva Vedder

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 47.6% vs our estimate 52%
• • Positive expected value: ~0.092 units per 1 unit stake at current price

Pros

• + Experience gap favors the home team (Von Deichmann's long career and winning record)
• + Current price (2.10) offers a better-than-break-even payoff if our probability holds

Cons

• - Doubles-specific form and partnership chemistry are not well documented in the provided data
• - All four players show recent poor results in the limited recent-match snippets, increasing upset risk

Details

We see value on the home pairing (Kathinka Von Deichmann / Celine Naef). The market prices the away team at 1.667 (implied ~60.0%) and the home at 2.10 (implied ~47.6%). Taking player profiles into account, Von Deichmann brings a deep body of match experience and a career win rate above 50% (559-507 over 1,066 matches), while the listed partners/opponents (Naef, Gamiz, Vedder) show much smaller sample sizes and lower recorded win rates (~10-21 records). On clay/hard surfaces all four have experience, but the experience and steadier career record of Von Deichmann suggest the true chance for the home pair is higher than the bookmaker-implied 47.6%. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 52.0%, which exceeds the break-even probability for the offered 2.10 price (about 47.6%), producing positive expected value. Caveats: doubles chemistry, limited doubles-specific form data and recent losses for several players increase variance and risk.

Key factors

• • Von Deichmann's much larger career experience and higher career win rate (559-507)
• • Opponents (Gamiz and Vedder) have modest records and limited match volume in the research
• • Market-implied probability for home (47.6%) is below our estimated true win chance (52%)