Kathinka Von Deichmann / Celine Naef vs Andrea Gamiz / Eva Vedder
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home pair at 1.98, estimating a 55% win probability which produces ~8.9% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 50.5% vs our estimate 55%
- • Min fair odds for home (1/0.55) = 1.818; current 1.98 offers clear margin
Pros
- + Experienced anchor (Von Deichmann) likely improves doubles stability
- + Current price (1.98) exceeds our fair-value threshold, producing positive EV
Cons
- - Limited data on the specific pairing chemistry for both teams
- - Recent match lists include many losses for several players, increasing variance
Details
Market prices favor the away pair at 1.746 (implied ~57.3%) while the home pair is available at 1.98 (implied ~50.5%). We estimate the home duo (Von Deichmann/Naef) closer to a 55.0% true win probability based on Von Deichmann's extensive experience and overall stronger career baseline versus the relatively limited and losing recent records of the three younger opponents. The market appears to over-weight the away side despite comparable surface experience across all four players and no clear H2H or partnership advantage for the away team. Removing a standard book vig and comparing our 55% estimate to the available home odds (1.98) yields positive expected value (EV = 0.55 * 1.98 - 1 ≈ 0.089), so we recommend backing the home pair at current prices.
Key factors
- • Von Deichmann's long career and higher overall win baseline versus other players
- • All four players show experience on clay/hard surfaces—no clear surface disadvantage for home pair
- • Market favors away team despite similar recent form among the less experienced players, creating a pricing edge