Katie Swan vs Giselle Isabella Guillen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price for Swan (1.10) is heavily skewed; given the similar records and lack of differentiating info we find no value and recommend no bet unless odds rise to ~1.667 or higher.
Highlights
- • Implied probability of Swan at 1.10 is ~90.9%; our estimated probability is ~60%
- • Current price produces a large negative EV (~-34%) so no value exists
Pros
- + Clear identification of a large market discrepancy versus estimated win probability
- + Conservative stance given limited distinguishing information
Cons
- - Assessment limited by sparse data (no H2H, no injury or venue specifics provided)
- - If additional information (injury/withdrawal) were available it could materially change the outlook
Details
The market heavily favors Katie Swan at 1.10 (implied 90.9%). Our assessment, based only on the provided profiles, is that both players have near-identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (Clay/Hard) with poor recent form, so such a lopsided price is not justified. We estimate Katie Swan's true win probability around 60% (0.60). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the current 1.10 offers strongly negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.10 - 1 = -0.34, or -34% ROI). Because expected_value is not positive at available prices, we do not recommend taking the favorite. If higher odds (>= 1.667) were available on Swan we would consider a value play.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and surfaces listed as Clay/Hard
- • Recent form for both is poor; no clear edge evident from provided data
- • Market-implied probability (90.9%) for Swan is outsized versus our estimated true probability (~60%)