Katie Swan vs Monique Barry
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on the moneyline: the market-implied probability for Katie Swan is far higher than what the data supports, so we recommend no bet at the current 1.12 price.
Highlights
- • Market implies 89.3% chance for Swan; our estimate ~65%
- • Required minimum odds for positive EV given our estimate: 1.538
Pros
- + We are conservative given limited, symmetric data between players
- + Avoids betting into a heavily one-sided market with insufficient justification
Cons
- - If inside information (injury, travel, form) not in the provided research exists, our assessment may underweight it
- - A more aggressive model might estimate a higher true probability and find value
Details
We compared the bookmakers' price (Katie Swan 1.12, implied win probability 89.3%) to our estimated true win probability for the home player. The public odds are extremely short and imply overwhelming likelihood, but the available performance data shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form, providing no clear basis for such a high implied probability. Given the lack of differentiating surface, injury, or head-to-head evidence in the research, we estimate Katie Swan's true win probability materially lower than the market-implied 89.3%. Using our conservative estimate (65% true win chance), the market price would need to be ≥ 1.538 to be profitable. At the current 1.12 price the expected return is negative, so there is no value to back the favorite.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results
- • No clear injury, surface, or H2H advantage is present in the provided data
- • Bookmakers' price for the home player implies an unrealistically high probability given the evidence