Katie Swan vs Tahlia Kokkinis

Highlights

• • Market implies ~89% for Swan; our estimate is ~58%
• • Required fair odds to justify a bet on Swan are about 1.724; current 1.12 is far too short

Pros

• + Clear, conservative assessment based only on the provided player data
• + We quantify the gap between market-implied and estimated true probability

Cons

• - Research is limited and truncated—there may be external information (form, ranking, H2H) not provided here
• - If additional context exists (e.g., Swan is returning from higher tier events), our neutral estimate could understate true probability

Details

We find no value on either side. The market prices Katie Swan at 1.12 (implied ~89.3%) while the available research shows both players with nearly identical records (10-21) and no clear edge on surface or form. With no H2H, injury or venue advantage in the provided data, a realistic true win probability for the favorite is much closer to ~58% than 89%. Using that estimate the expected ROI at 1.12 is 0.58*1.12 - 1 = -0.350 (≈ -35%), so the market price is far too short. To be profitable we would need at least decimal 1.724 for the favorite. Because current prices offer negative expected value, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Provided records for both players are virtually identical (10-21), suggesting no clear superiority
• • No head-to-head, injury, or surface advantage information in the research to justify a heavy favorite
• • Market-implied probability (≈89.3% for 1.12) is inconsistent with the available performance data