Katie Swan vs Taylah Preston

Highlights

• • Bookie-implied probability for Swan is ~77%, but research does not support such dominance
• • Our estimated true probability for Swan is 60%, requiring >=1.667 decimal to be profitable

Pros

• + Swan is the market favorite, consistent with bookmakers seeing an edge
• + If external info (injury to Preston or local factors) surfaces, market edge could widen further

Cons

• - Provided research shows near-identical records and no clear advantage for Swan
• - Backing Swan at 1.296 yields a substantial negative expected return based on our estimate

Details

The market prices Katie Swan at 1.296 (implied ~77%). The provided player profiles show nearly identical aggregate records (both 10-21) and recent match lists on hard courts, with no clear injury or head-to-head information to justify such a steep favorite. Given the symmetric data in the research, we assign a much more conservative true win probability for Swan of 60% (0.60). At the current price (1.296) that implies EV = 0.60 * 1.296 - 1 = -0.2224 (a -22.24% ROI), so there is no value to back Swan at the quoted market odds. For value on the underdog, the market odds for Preston (3.28) imply ~30.5% — we estimate Preston's true chance closer to 40% given the similar profiles, which would require a quoted price >= 2.5 to be +EV; the available 3.28 would be +EV by that logic, but because the research shows nearly indistinguishable form and no decisive edges for Preston, we remain conservative and do not recommend a contrarian lay here. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical win-loss records and recent results for both players
• • Both players have recent matches on hard courts — no surface advantage evident
• • Market strongly favors Swan (1.296) without corresponding supporting evidence in the supplied data