Highlights

• • Home implied probability (90.9%) is not supported by the supplied performance data
• • At p=0.36 the underdog yields EV = +1.25 per 1 unit staked at 6.25

Pros

• + Large positive expected value at current public odds
• + Research shows parity between players which justifies taking the underdog when market overprices the favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited and both players show poor recent form—uncertainty remains
• - Market heavy favorite could reflect non-public info or an error; if missing info exists this reduces edge

Details

We see an extreme market split: the listed home price of 1.10 implies a 90.9% chance for Katie Swan, while the underdog price of 6.25 implies a 16.0% chance for Giselle Guillen. The supplied player profiles show both competitors with nearly identical recent records (10-21 career match records across Clay/Hard and poor recent form), which points to a much tighter matchup than the market suggests. With no injury or surface advantage information in the research and mirrored recent results, we judge the match as close to even with only a modest home-edge at best. Conservatively estimating Giselle Guillen's true win probability at 36% (p=0.36) yields substantial value at the available 6.25 price. At that estimated probability the EV for a 1-unit stake is +1.25 (EV = 0.36 * 6.25 - 1), which is strongly positive and indicates the underdog price is mispriced by the market.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent poor form (10-21), implying a close matchup
• • Market prices are extremely skewed: home 1.10 (implied 90.9%) vs away 6.25 (implied 16.0%), inconsistent with the on-paper parity
• • No injury or surface advantage documented in the research to justify the heavy favorite price