Highlights

• • Market price 1.82 implies ~54.95% — our conservative estimate is 56.0%
• • Small but positive expected value: ≈ +0.019 (1.9% ROI)

Pros

• + Available odds (1.82) are above our min required odds (1.786) for the estimated probability
• + Conservative estimate avoids overconfidence given lack of external info

Cons

• - Edge is very small — outcome variance is high and sample is noisy
• - No injury, form, surface or H2H data available to confidently increase the probability estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative assessment and find a small value on the home player. Market-implied probability for Katja Ivanovska at 1.82 is 1/1.82 = 54.95%. With no external injury, surface, form or H2H data available, we apply a conservative 56.0% estimated true win probability (slightly above the market price to reflect low-liquidity inefficiency common in domestic events). At that probability the expected value is 0.56 * 1.82 - 1 = +0.0192 (about +1.92% ROI). This is a small positive edge relative to the current price; the minimum fair decimal odds for our estimate is 1/0.56 = 1.786, so the available 1.82 meets our threshold. We therefore recommend the home side only because the current market price offers a small positive EV given our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability: home 1.82 -> 54.95%
• • No external information available; we use conservative +1.05% edge over market
• • Low-tier domestic matches often carry small inefficiencies in listed prices