Kayla Cross vs Mingge Xu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on the home player Kayla Cross at 1.758 because the implied probability is slightly below our conservative true estimate, yielding ~5.5% EV; however, uncertainty from recent form and limited opponent data keeps this a modest-edge play.
Highlights
- • Market implies 56.9% for Cross; we estimate 60% true chance
- • Positive but small expected value (~5.5% ROI) at current odds
Pros
- + Clear experience and career win-rate advantage
- + Current odds offer a small positive expected return versus our estimate
Cons
- - Both players show recent losses; form risk reduces confidence
- - Limited direct matchup/H2H and specific Evora surface performance data
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Kayla Cross (1/1.758 = 56.9%) to our estimated true win probability of 60%. Cross has a large experience and match-volume advantage (career record ~559-507 across multiple surfaces) versus Mingge Xu's much smaller sample (10-21). Xu's recent results show multiple losses and limited match count, increasing variance. Given the market price (1.758) is longer than the breakeven price for our estimate (1.667), we find a small positive edge: EV = 0.60 * 1.758 - 1 = +0.055 (≈5.5% ROI). We note uncertainty from recent form and limited specific Evora/clay data, so upside is modest and risk remains.
Key factors
- • Experience and career volume advantage for Kayla Cross (large sample of matches across surfaces)
- • Mingge Xu has a weaker overall win rate (10-21) and small career sample, increasing upset variance
- • Market-implied probability (56.9%) is below our estimated probability (60%), leaving modest value