Kayla Cross vs Alina Korneeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Kayla Cross at 5.01 because the research shows closely matched profiles while the market heavily favors Korneeva; at an estimated 30% win chance Cross offers positive EV.
Highlights
- • Korneeva is priced extremely short (1.144) despite research showing similar records
- • Cross at 5.01 only needs ~20% true win probability to be fair; we estimate ~30%
Pros
- + Large market discrepancy between implied and our estimated true probability
- + Research shows both players with similar records and surface experience, supporting higher chance for the underdog
Cons
- - Provided research is limited and duplicated; no H2H or clear recent-form advantage available
- - Underdog outcome has high variance and match-specific factors (fitness, matchup) are unknown
Details
Current market prices make Alina Korneeva a very short favorite (1.144, implied ~87%). The research provided shows both players with virtually identical career summaries and recent results (both listed as 10-21 with appearances on clay and hard courts), which argues the matchup is closer than the market suggests. Kayla Cross is priced at 5.01 (implied ~20%); given the similarity in recorded form, surface exposure, and lack of injury/H2H information in the research, we assess Cross's true chance meaningfully above the market-implied 20%. At an estimated true win probability of 30%, Cross represents positive expected value versus the current 5.01 price (EV = 0.30 * 5.01 - 1 = +0.503). We adopt the current publicly quoted price (5.01) for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Market implies Korneeva ~87% while research shows nearly identical records for both players
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard in the sample, reducing a clear surface edge
- • No injury or H2H data provided, increasing uncertainty but supporting a more conservative fair probability than the market