Kayla Cross vs Francisca Jorge
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small-value play on Kayla Cross at 2.04 based on symmetrical profiles and a 50% estimated win probability; the edge is marginal but present.
Highlights
- • Profiles and records are effectively identical in the research
- • Current home price (2.04) is above our fair value mark (2.00)
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price (EV ≈ 0.02)
- + Decision based on symmetry of available data rather than guesswork
Cons
- - Edge is very small — outcome variance is high for a single match
- - Limited information (no H2H, no detailed surface/condition breakdown) increases uncertainty
Details
We see near-identical profiles for Kayla Cross and Francisca Jorge (both 10-21, experience on clay and hard) and no clear recent-form or injury edge in the provided research. The market prices Jorge as the favorite at 1.714 (implied ~58%), while Cross is offered at 2.04 (implied ~49%). Given the symmetrical data, we estimate the true win probability for Cross at 50.0%; at that probability the fair decimal price is 2.00. The current price of 2.04 therefore offers a small positive edge (EV = 0.02 on a 1-unit stake). This is a marginal value bet driven by price inefficiency rather than a clear player superiority.
Key factors
- • Both players show identical career records in the provided data (10-21)
- • No clear recent-form or injury advantage for either player in the research
- • Market favors the away player, creating slight value on the home side at 2.04