Highlights

• • Cross favored by market at 1.251 (implied ~79.9%)
• • Our estimated win probability for Cross is ~74%, making the current price negative EV

Pros

• + Clear experience and broader match record advantage for Cross
• + Both players have clay experience so surface isn't a strong equalizer for Robinson

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both — Cross not flawless recently
• - Robinson's small sample size adds variance; upset risk remains

Details

We see a clear experience gap: Kayla Cross has a long career (559-507) while Jada Robinson has a small sample (10-21). Robinson has limited match volume and poorer win rate, and both players have recent losses, but nothing in the research suggests a >80% true win probability for Cross. The market prices Cross at 1.251 (implied ~79.9%). Based on Cross's career win rate across levels and Robinson's limited but weak record, we estimate Cross's true win probability at ~74.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.351. At the current price of 1.251 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.74 * 1.251 - 1 ≈ -0.074), so there is no value to back Cross at available prices. We therefore recommend no bet unless the market offers at least ~1.351 on Cross (or a similarly priced undervalue on Robinson).

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Cross has extensive career match volume vs Robinson's small sample
• • Career win rates favor Cross (≈52% vs ≈32%) though across mixed levels
• • Market implies ~80% for Cross; our estimate (~74%) does not justify that price