Highlights

• • Eala implied win probability: ~77.8% (1.286)
• • Our estimated probability for Day: 33% → required odds 3.03, current 3.68 offers value

Pros

• + Current odds (3.68) are comfortably above our fair threshold (3.03)
• + Research shows similar recent records and surfaces, supporting an argument that the favorite is overvalued

Cons

• - Provided data lacks H2H, detailed surface/venue specifics, and injury updates — increases uncertainty
• - If market information not in research (e.g., ranking, matchup specifics) legitimately favors Eala, our estimate could be optimistic

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment. Market odds imply Alexandra Eala is a heavy favorite (1.286 -> 77.8% implied) while Kayla Day is a long underdog (3.68 -> 27.2% implied). The provided profiles show nearly identical recent records (10-21) and both play clay and hard; there are no injury notes or clear form separation in the supplied data. Given the parity in the research, the market looks to overprice Eala and underprice Day. We conservatively estimate Kayla Day's true win probability at 33.0% (higher than the implied 27.2%). At Kayla's current decimal price of 3.68, that gives EV = 0.33 * 3.68 - 1 = 0.214 (≈21.4% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for that probability is 1 / 0.33 = 3.03, and the current price (3.68) exceeds that, so we identify value on Kayla Day. We note uncertainty due to limited detail (no H2H, venue specifics beyond tournament name), so our probability is conservative.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability strongly favors Eala (77.8%) despite similar recent records
• • Both players have near-identical records and surface exposure in the provided data, reducing a clear edge
• • No injuries or decisive form advantage shown in supplied research, increasing likelihood of underpriced underdog value