Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Day = 41.7%; our estimate = 44%
• • Min fair odds for Day at our probability = 2.273; current quote 2.40 provides positive EV

Pros

• + Price on Kayla Day is above our fair-value threshold
• + No clear form or injury advantage for Arango in the provided research

Cons

• - Research is limited and shows both players with similar recent losses — uncertainty is high
• - Small margin of edge; EV is modest and sensitive to probability estimates

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities (Kayla Day at 2.40 => 41.7%, Emiliana Arango at 1.578 => 63.3%) to our estimated true probability. The available research shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players with no clear injury or head-to-head advantage; that implies a near-even matchup. We assign Kayla Day a modest edge (estimated win probability 44%) because the market appears to overvalue Arango at the short price, creating value on the Kayla Day moneyline. At our probability, the minimum fair decimal price is ~2.273; the available 2.40 therefore yields positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical career records and surface experience for both players
• • Recent match listings show losses for both players; no clear form edge
• • Market pricing strongly favors Arango, creating potential value on the underdog