Highlights

• • Both players show comparable records and recent losses in the provided data
• • Current odds imply ~52.6% but our fair estimate is ~50%, creating negative EV at 1.901

Pros

• + Market is symmetrical — easy to evaluate relative value
• + No evident external factors (injury/H2H) that would surprise the market in provided data

Cons

• - Both players are in poor recent form, increasing match unpredictability
• - Current odds are below our fair threshold (2.00), producing negative expected return

Details

We find no value in this market. Both Kayla Day and Iryna Shymanovich present virtually identical profiles in the provided data: identical overall records (10-21), similar recent form (predominantly losses), and experience on both hard and clay with no clear surface edge. The market has both at 1.901 (implied ~52.6% each), while our assessment treats the matchup as essentially even with an estimated true probability of 50.0% for either player. That requires minimum fair decimal odds of 2.000 to produce zero expected value; the current 1.901 is below that threshold, giving a negative expected return (~-4.95% on a 1-unit stake). Without additional edges such as injury information, favorable head-to-head, or a clear form differential, we cannot justify taking either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21) — no clear performance edge
• • Both players have experience on hard and clay; surface impact appears neutral
• • No injury reports or H2H data in the provided research to indicate an advantage