Kayla Lorrimer vs Tasnim Ismail

Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (market) ~81.9%; our conservative estimate 78.0%
• • EV on favorite at 1.223 is negative (~ -4.7%) so it's not a value wager

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite, simplifying value comparison
• + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating underdog chances

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Short favorite price leaves little margin for value — small estimation shifts change outcome

Details

We see Kayla Lorrimer priced at 1.223 (market-implied ~81.9%). In the absence of any independent form, surface, injury or H2H data, we make conservative assumptions: favorites at ITF level typically carry significant chance but also more variance than higher tours. We estimate Kayla's true win probability at 78.0% (0.78). At the offered price of 1.223 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.78 * 1.223 - 1 ≈ -0.047), so there is no value on the favorite. Conversely, the implied break-even probability for the away price 3.75 is ~26.7%, which would require Tasnim Ismail to have ≥26.7% true chance to be +EV; under our conservative view Tasnim's probability is ~22.0%, so that price also lacks value. Because neither side shows positive expected value versus our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Kayla Lorrimer at 1.223 (implied ~81.9%)
• • No independent data on recent form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H — we apply conservative assumptions
• • ITF-level matches have higher upset variance, reducing confidence in very short prices as value