Kaylan Bigun vs Cannon Kingsley
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite is slightly overbet versus our 68% win estimate and the underdog is not priced high enough to justify a play.
Highlights
- • Kingsley is the clear form/record favorite on hard courts
- • Current favorite odds (1.407) imply slightly more than our win estimate, producing negative EV
Pros
- + Clear analytical edge that Kingsley is the better player based on records provided
- + Both players' recent activity on hard reduces surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Market has already shortened the favorite's price below our fair threshold
- - Limited granular match/injury data in the research increases uncertainty around exact probability
Details
We view Cannon Kingsley as the stronger player on hard based on the provided profiles (Kingsley 27-21 career vs Bigun 9-15) and recent activity; we estimate Kingsley's true win probability around 68%. The market price (Away 1.407 -> implied ~71%) is slightly shorter than our estimate, producing a small negative edge at current quotes (EV ≈ -0.043 for a 1-unit stake). The home price (Bigun 2.84 -> implied ~35%) would require a much higher perceived upset probability (~32%) than we assign to offer value (min required odds ~3.125 at our underdog probability). Given both sides are negative expected value versus our model, we recommend taking no bet.
Key factors
- • Cannon Kingsley has a materially better career win rate and far more matches (27-21 vs 9-15)
- • Both players have recent matches on hard courts, so surface does not materially favor the underdog
- • Market prices the favorite a bit too short relative to our 68% estimate, leaving a small negative EV