Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (79.4%) >> our estimate (60%)
• • Both players show similar profiles and recent form, so no obvious reason to back the heavy favourite

Pros

• + Clear decision: current prices offer no value on the favourite
• + Simple, conservative stance avoids a negative-expected-value bet

Cons

• - If inside information (injury/withdrawal/h2h advantage) exists but isn't in the research, we could be missing an edge
• - If our estimated win probability is too low, we may be overly conservative

Details

We compared the market price (Kayo Nishimura 1.258, implied 79.4%) to our estimated true win probability for Nishimura (~60%). Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form with several losses, offering no clear performance edge. The market heavily favors the home player, but we view that gap as unjustified given the available data (no H2H advantage, similar surfaces played, and no injury information to explain such a skew). At our probability estimate, the favourite is overpriced for backers and does not offer positive expected value; therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Bookmakers imply Nishimura win prob ~79.4% (1.258) which is far above our 60% estimate
• • Both players have nearly identical records (10-21) and mixed recent results, so little form edge
• • No H2H, injury, or surface-specific advantage present to justify the heavy market lean