Kazuki Nishiwaki vs Arthur Weber
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting on Arthur Weber: the market price (1.06) understates his win probability given Nishiwaki's 0-6 record and Weber's superior form, producing a small positive EV (~2.8%).
Highlights
- • Huge disparity in career records and recent form favors Weber heavily
- • Current odds (1.06) offer a small but positive edge versus our 97% win estimate
Pros
- + Clear statistical and form advantage for Weber
- + Price is short but still slightly above our minimum fair odds (1.031)
Cons
- - Edge is small (low single-digit ROI) — variance in low-tier events can erase gains
- - Limited data on Nishiwaki could hide unobserved factors; small career sample sizes overall
Details
We see a major quality gap in the research: Kazuki Nishiwaki is 0-6 in his short recorded career and has shown no wins on hard, while Arthur Weber has a 25-14 record with wins on hard and clay and clear recent success. The market price for Weber (1.06) implies a 94.34% win chance. We estimate Weber's true win probability at 97% given the opponent's 0-6 record, Weber's much larger sample size and winning record, and both players' activity on hard courts. That gives a positive expected value: EV = 0.97 * 1.06 - 1 = +0.0282 (roughly +2.8% ROI). The edge is small but positive versus the implied market price, so we recommend backing the away player only because current odds exceed our minimum required fair odds (1.031). We note limited sample sizes and tournament variance, which temper confidence even though the objective matchup data heavily favors Weber.
Key factors
- • Nishiwaki recorded 0-6 career matches with no wins in provided results
- • Weber has a much larger sample (25-14) and recorded wins on hard courts
- • Current market odds (1.06) imply 94.34% — our estimate is ~97%, producing positive EV