Kei Yau Cheung vs Alicia Smith
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market appears to overestimate Alicia Smith; backing underdog Kei Yau Cheung at 12.28 shows strong theoretical value given a conservative 14% win estimate for Kei, but data is thin so risk is high.
Highlights
- • Huge market skew: Alicia implied ~93.5% vs home implied ~8.1%
- • Alicia's documented 10-21 career record and recent losses argue the market price is inflated
Pros
- + Large positive EV at current home price (EV ≈ +0.72 per unit)
- + Minimal downside if market correct but offer suggests clear mispricing
Cons
- - Analysis relies primarily on Alicia's limited profile; no data available on Kei or head-to-head
- - High uncertainty — small-data environment increases chance our probability estimate is off
Details
We see a very large market skew toward Alicia Smith at 1.071 (implied ~93.5%). The only objective data available (Alicia Smith profile) shows a 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) and recent losses, which makes a ~93% true win probability implausible. Given that mismatch we assign value to the outright underdog Kei Yau Cheung: even a modest true chance (we estimate 14%) is materially higher than the market-implied ~8.1% for the home side. Using the current home price (12.28) this produces positive EV. We remain cautious because available research is limited to Alicia's profile (no direct data on Kei, no H2H, no injuries or surface-specific matchup detail), so our estimate is conservative relative to the market distortion but acknowledges significant uncertainty.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Alicia Smith (1.071) is ~93.5%, which is extreme
- • Alicia Smith career record 10-21 (~32% career win rate) and recent losses reduce confidence in a 93% true chance
- • Lack of available data on Kei Yau Cheung increases uncertainty but even a small true chance for Kei exceeds market-implied probability