Highlights

• • Quoted away price 1.029 implies ~97.2% — too short vs our 95% estimate
• • Calculated EV at current odds is negative (~-2.245%)

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on a heavy favorite — match likely short
• + Low chance of a longshot win, so outcome is predictable but poorly priced

Cons

• - Odds for the favorite are too short to generate positive expected value
• - No independent data on surface/form/injuries/H2H to justify deviating from a conservative estimate

Details

We estimate the favorite (Eliakim Coulibaly) is very likely to win but found no value at the quoted price. The market price of 1.029 implies a win probability ≈97.2% (1/1.029). Absent independent research, we conservatively estimate Coulibaly's true win probability at 95.0% (0.95). At that probability the expected return on a 1‑unit bet at 1.029 is 0.95*1.029 - 1 = -0.02245 (a ~2.245% loss), so the price is too short to offer positive EV. Conversely, the long price on De Schepper (29.85) implies ~3.35% and would require an implausibly low true probability to be +EV. Given the lack of additional data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we prefer to pass rather than stake into a negative-EV market.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~97.2% for the away favorite at 1.029
• • We conservatively estimate the favorite at 95.0% — lower than market, producing negative EV
• • No external research on surface, form, injuries, or H2H was available, increasing uncertainty