Highlights

• • De Schepper implied 13.3% vs our 18% estimate
• • Positive EV of ~0.35 at the current 7.50 price

Pros

• + Significant overlay vs market price if our probability estimate is accurate
• + Both players' recent form and surface history in the research narrow the expected gap

Cons

• - Small and noisy sample of recent matches in the provided research
• - Underdog upset bets carry high variance; Wawrinka is still a high-profile player despite inconsistent results

Details

The market price (De Schepper 7.50 => 13.3% implied) appears to overvalue Wawrinka given the limited recent-form evidence in the research. Both players show similar struggling records over the sample period (De Schepper 30-28, Wawrinka 21-24) and both have recent matches on hard courts, which narrows the expected quality gap. Wawrinka has a very short turnaround in the research (a Rennes match on 08-Sep-2025 noted as uncertain) and shows inconsistent results in the provided recent matches; that raises the upset probability. At a conservative true win probability of 18% for De Schepper, the 7.50 price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.18 * 7.50 - 1 = +0.35). We therefore identify value on the home underdog at the quoted market price, while acknowledging elevated variance and limited sample sizes in the source data.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (13.3%) is much lower than our estimated upset chance (18%)
• • Both players have recent match activity on hard courts in the research, reducing a surface advantage
• • Wawrinka's recent results in the provided data are inconsistent and include an uncertain/quick turnaround