Kenny De Schepper vs Stan Wawrinka

Highlights

• • De Schepper has grass experience in the provided data; that narrows the gap versus the favorite.
• • Current market prices are too short for the underdog to offer positive expected value.

Pros

• + De Schepper has recorded match play on grass in the provided profile, which helps his chance here.
• + Wawrinka's recent results shown are on hard/court and not on grass, creating some model uncertainty in his advantage.

Cons

• - Market strongly favors Wawrinka and current prices (4.40 for De Schepper) are insufficient to overcome our estimate of his true win probability.
• - Both profiles and recent-form snippets are limited and noisy, increasing model uncertainty and match variance.

Details

We compare the market price (K. De Schepper 4.40, S. Wawrinka 1.216) to our assessment. The market implies ~22.7% for De Schepper and ~82.3% for Wawrinka. De Schepper has explicit grass experience in the provided profile while Wawrinka's recent activity in the research is on hard/clay only, which nudges our model slightly toward De Schepper relative to a neutral baseline. After weighing surface fit, recent form snippets (De Schepper: moderate results across surfaces; Wawrinka: decline and mostly hard/court matches in the provided data) and the limited sample in the research, we estimate De Schepper's true win probability at ~20.0% (0.20). That requires decimal odds of 5.000 to be break-even. At the current De Schepper price (4.40) EV = 0.20 * 4.40 - 1 = -0.12 (negative), so there is no positive expected value on either side given the available prices and our probabilities. We therefore recommend no bet because neither side offers positive EV at quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: grass favors big-serve/spin players like De Schepper according to the profiles
• • Wawrinka's recent matches in the research are on hard/clay, creating uncertainty about his grass form
• • Market is heavily favoring Wawrinka (implied ~82.3%), leaving little juice for the underdog at 4.40