Highlights

• • Bookmaker odds imply an overwhelmingly certain outcome that the research does not support
• • Estimated fair price for Miyoshi ~1.333 vs market 1.04 — current price is negative EV

Pros

• + Miyoshi is the recognizable favorite with a winning career record (18-14)
• + Surface experience on hard courts is present

Cons

• - Recent match results in the provided data show multiple losses, undermining a near-certain forecast
• - Market likely overstates the favorite due to thin or mispriced book — no value at 1.04

Details

The market prices Kenta Miyoshi at 1.04 (implied win probability ~96.2%), which would only be a value bet if his true win probability were above ~96%. The available research on Miyoshi shows a modest professional record (18-14) with mixed recent results on hard and clay and several recent losses, which does not support a near-certain outcome. There is no substantive information on Matias Olivero in the provided sources to justify the market extreme. Based on the player's record, surface experience, and recent form, we estimate a realistic win probability for Miyoshi around 75%, implying a fair price nearer 1.333. At the quoted 1.04 the expected value is strongly negative (EV = 0.75 * 1.04 - 1 = -0.22), so there is no value on the favorite. The underdog price (11.5) implies ~8.7% chance; given limited information we cannot justify that low a true probability either, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies a ~96% chance for Miyoshi which is unsupported by his 18-14 career record
• • Recent form in provided data includes multiple losses on hard courts, reducing confidence in a near-certain win
• • No substantive information provided on Matias Olivero to justify the large price disparity