Highlights

• • Book implies near-certain win for Miyoshi (no value at 1.02)
• • Recent form on hard courts in the provided data is mixed/negative for Miyoshi

Pros

• + Miyoshi has a winning career record in the supplied data (18-14)
• + Experience on hard courts is documented in the profile

Cons

• - Current price (1.02) requires an unrealistic >98% true win probability to be +EV
• - Recent losses on hard surface in the research reduce confidence that the market is fair

Details

We compare the market price (Kenta Miyoshi 1.02 => implied ~98.0%) to a conservative model-based view informed by the provided profile. Miyoshi's career record (18-14) and recent results in the research show multiple recent losses on hard courts, so we estimate his true chance below the implied market probability. The market is offering virtually no return on the favorite; to be +EV we would need to believe his true win probability is >98%, which is not supported by the supplied form data. There is also no opponent (Thomas Giles) data in the research to justify why the market would be so extreme in one direction, increasing uncertainty. Therefore there is no value at the current moneyline (1.02) and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Miyoshi is ~98.0% (1.02 decimal) leaving almost no upside
• • Miyoshi record 18-14 with recent losses on hard courts noted in the research
• • No data provided for Thomas Giles, increasing uncertainty around the extreme market pricing