Kilian Feldbausch vs Luka Mikrut
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Luka Mikrut at 1.909 given his stronger season record and a 58% estimated win probability, producing ~10.6% ROI at current price.
Highlights
- • Market implied prob (1.909) = ~52.4%; our estimate = 58%
- • Positive EV of ~0.106 per unit stake at current away price
Pros
- + Clear season-long win-rate advantage for Mikrut
- + Current odds (1.909) are above our fair-price threshold (1.724) given our probability estimate
Cons
- - No grass-specific performance data for either player in the supplied research
- - Challenger matches and surface transition introduce variance and matchup uncertainty
Details
We see near-even market pricing (Away 1.909 implied ~52.4%) but the head-to-head indicators from the provided profiles favor Luka Mikrut: a superior overall win-loss record (48-20 vs 40-30) and more consistent results across the season. Neither player shows notable grass experience in the supplied data, which raises uncertainty, but given Mikrut's higher win rate and comparable recent serve metrics, we estimate he is the more likely winner. Comparing our estimated true probability (58.0%) to the market (52.4%) produces a meaningful edge; at the quoted away price 1.909 this yields positive expected value. We therefore recommend betting the away side only because current prices offer value versus our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Luka Mikrut has a stronger overall season record (48-20) vs Feldbausch (40-30)
- • Both players lack clear grass-form evidence in the provided data, increasing variance
- • Market odds imply ~52.4% for Mikrut; our assessment gives ~58% so current odds offer value